Miroslav Palanský

We develop a methodology to decompose the tax revenue impact of the global minimum tax introduced in 2024 into several components and quantify its potential impact on profit shifting. We apply the methodology to a dataset comprising 34 thousand country-multinational observations combined from corporate tax returns, financial statements, and global country-by-country reports of all multinationals active in Slovakia in 2020. We find that the global minimum tax has the potential to decrease profit shifting by most multinationals, which are on average likely to pay higher effective tax rates in most countries worldwide post-reform. We find that Slovak corporate tax revenues will increase by 4%, with half of the increase due to its minimum top-up taxes. The other half of the increase is corporate income tax on profits that will no longer be shifted out of the country. We expect the global minimum tax to target 49% of previously shifted profits.

Since 2016, multinationals with a revenue over € 750 million have to submit country-by-country reports to tax authorities to deter tax avoidance. Using a regression discontinuity design, we provide evidence for an increase in affected multinationals’ effective tax rates. However, the most aggressive multinationals with known tax haven presence were only moderately affected. The effect is mainly driven by medium-aggressive firms, which achieved low effective tax rates without tax haven affiliates to shift profits to. The policy was thus effective in combating some tax avoidance but profit shifting to tax havens remains an issue, explaining the push for further policy measures including the global minimum corporate tax rate.

The global financial crisis and leaked documents such as the Panama Papers highlighted the important role of financial secrecy in the global economy. Although international initiatives pressing for more transparency have gained strength, there is little knowledge on how the map of financial secrecy has changed over the past decade and why. We use the internationally recognised Financial Secrecy Index and analyse its five editions between 2011 and 2020. We find that financial transparency related to international standards and cooperation improved much more than transparency in the arguably more substantive areas of ownership registration, transparency of legal entities, as well as tax and financial regulation. Second, we document convergence of financial transparency among jurisdictions. While some of the most secretive countries and jurisdictions became more transparent, many with higher transparency in 2011 became relatively more secretive by 2020. This convergence is driven mainly by the most secretive countries and jurisdictions becoming more internationally cooperative. Third, we map the heterogeneity of financial secrecy across the world and classify 71 countries and jurisdictions into five groups, which cut across conventional geographical divisions, highlighting the need to study secrecy in specific contexts. They do, however, show that while OECD countries are relatively more transparent, their former colonies, with continued links with and dependency on former colonial powers, exhibit little improvement. Put together, our findings show that while some progress towards global financial transparency has been achieved, it is shallow and very uneven, with convergence potentially replacing a race-to-the-bottom dynamic.